On February 16, 2023, the seminar on the development review and prospect of the photovoltaic industry in 2022 sponsored by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association was successfully held. Shu Yunhua, Director of Tracking Stent Strategy Department of Trina Solar Co., Ltd., delivered a report on "2022 Tracking Stent Industry Review&Outlook".
From 2021 to 2022, the photovoltaic tracking bracket market was relatively challenging. Due to fluctuations in prices upstream of the industrial chain, as well as the impact of steel prices, logistics, and other factors, some tracking bracket projects were delayed, and some projects were converted to fixed brackets. Therefore, the overall market size was under certain pressure. From 2021 to 2022, the global market size is about 50GW.
Looking forward to 2023, with the end of the epidemic, the price of upstream components is stable, and the steel price and logistics basically fall back to the level of 2020. 2023 is a year of relatively strong demand for photovoltaic ground power stations. It is predicted that the global tracking rack market size will reach around 70GW in 2023, and 150GW in 2027. The United States and Europe are still relatively important traditional markets for tracking stents in the next five years, and the two regions together will account for approximately 50% of the tracking stent market size. In terms of emerging markets, Brazil is likely to replace Spain as the world's second largest market this year and next year. China's photovoltaic installation accounts for more than 30% of the global market, while the tracking bracket market accounts for about 10%. There is a significant gap between China's tracking bracket penetration rate and that of foreign countries. China is likely to replace Spain and Brazil as the world's second largest market in 2025-2026. China and Latin America have great potential.
In terms of policy, the local manufacturing of tracking brackets is mainly the processing of steel, so its manufacturing localization is relatively easy to implement in the overseas market. Tracking brackets most need to pay attention to the manufacturing localization policy. From 2022 to 2023, there has been a lot of overseas tracking stent production capacity, with a rapid growth.
Whether a technology will have long-term competitiveness in the future depends primarily on the cost of the technology itself. Since 2016, the global average cost per kilowatt hour of tracking stent has reached the lowest. In 2017, the market size and market share of tracking stents increased significantly, also due to the fact that the cost per kilowatt hour of electricity reached a market acceptable level.
In addition to studying the tracking stent itself, the future development of tracking stent in China needs to look at the surrounding technologies of the tracking stent, such as the construction of ultra-high voltage, the construction of pumped storage energy, and the development of energy storage. The future development of tracking stent in China needs to be viewed from a systematic perspective. In addition, China's tracking support is mainly used in photovoltaic+application scenarios such as offshore/mudflat, sloping fields, agricultural and solar complementation, fishery and solar complementation, because the absorption, power transmission, and industrial integration of these application scenarios are more guaranteed from an economic perspective, but also bring many challenges to the tracking support product design and project development, such as offshore/mudflat corrosion, slope fields to adapt to very steep terrain, agricultural and solar complementation The pile foundation of Yuguang is relatively high, making it difficult to lay the foundation, and it is difficult to install, operate, and maintain.
